Here is some context, to begin with: recently, the Palestine Football Association (PFA) has urged FIFA to exclude the Israel Football Association (IFA) from FIFA. The PFA accuses the IFA of human rights and humanitarian law violations in the Gaza Strip.
What are those violations PFA speaks of?
The Palestine football authorities blame the IFA for discrimination and racism in the Israeli Premier League. For instance, the PFA refers to fans of Beitar Jerusalem FC who allegedly name their club 'the most racist team' in their chants and call players of Arab origin 'terrorists' during games.
Moreover, the PFA also claims that Israeli Premier League sides don't allow Arabs to play for them.
The Israel-Hamas war that started in October 2023 has led to serious damage to Palestine's football facilities. While Israel sees this war as a way to fight off terrorists, Palestine consider it genocide. Therefore, the PFA looks at social media posts from Israeli football administrators and players that support the Israeli army and its actions in Gaza as messages of support for genocide.
Has FIFA responded to Palestine's demands?
Not yet. The 74th Fifa conference will be held on May 13-17 in Bangkok, Thailand. There's little doubt that the PFA's submission will be on the agenda there.
By the way, in February 2024, Palestine, accompanied by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Jordan and some other Middle Eastern countries, demanded to exclude Israel from UEFA but the response was negative.
What would happen if FIFA excluded Israel?
First and foremost, that would mean Israel missing out on the 2026 World Cup in North America. Historically, Israel have never been favourites among the World Cup participants, and they aren't today: odds of them winning the World Cup are 99/1 (h/t Megapari), which is similar to the likes of Gibraltar or Luxembourg.
Besides, a FIFA ban could stop Israeli football clubs and the country's league from participating in international competitions organized by FIFA or its affiliates. Also, Israeli referees and officials could be banned from international competitions.
Finally, FIFA could stop funding and developing football in Israel.
How likely is FIFA ban on Israel to happen?
That's a good question. On the one hand, FIFA did ban countries before. For instance, the Kuwait Football Association (KFA) was suspended by FIFA in 2015. The reason for the ban was governmental interference in football affairs.
The most recent case is FIFA's ban on Russia. After Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale war with Ukraine that led to hundreds of thousands of human casualties and massive damage to Ukraine's economy, FIFA expelled all Russian teams.
The main thing about FIFA bans is that none of them has been permanent. The Kuwait ban was lifted in 2017, while Russian U-17 teams were allowed to participate in the World Cup tournaments starting from October 2023, provided they don't have their national flag, anthem or colours on display.
That being said, it would be wrong to rate the chances of a ban on Israel as big. Usually, FIFA follows UEFA in that regard, and the latter didn't agree to expel Israel even when a dozen of countries demanded it. However, FIFA could impose sanctions on specific clubs or persons who they find guilty of discrimination or racism.
