“What can I say? His technical level is on the same as our front three,” assistant manager Pep Lijnders said when asked about the signing of Diogo Jota.
“He has so much future in the game and he will have a great pathway inside our club. He’s like a pressing monster, so he will fit in straight away. He will fit into our style. We are happy with him, and all the things we heard are true. He is a very professional, passionate, dedicated, brave player.”
It is not unusual for coaches to hype up their latest signings - after all, you would obviously praise a big-money signing. However, here we can take a look at why Lijnders words make complete sense.
A statistical analysis
Who doesn't love advanced stats? They tell you stories that normal stats such as shots on target and passes completed don't tell. They give context, they give meaning to almost everything a footballer does.
But before we take a look at some of Jota's advanced stats, we have to understand what some of these terms mean.
xA is expected assists. Opta defines them as: "xA measures the likelihood that a given pass will become a goal assist. It considers several factors including the type of pass, pass end-point and length of the pass."
Expected goals (xg) measures the quality of a shot based on several variables such as assist type, shot angle and distance from goal, whether it was a headed shot and whether it was defined as a big chance.
Adding up a player or team’s expected goals can give us an indication of how many goals a player or team should have scored on average, given the shots they have taken - the higher the xG, the better the chances of scoring.
Shot-creating actions are actions that have a good chance of leading to a buildup that ends in a goal, or actions that directly lead to goal - these include dribbles, shots taken, passes into the final third, etc.
Successful pressures are counted when the possession is regained by the player within 5 seconds of pressing the opponent - something that our team thrives on.
Now, let's take a look at how Jota ranks in some of these advanced metrics during his last two seasons with Wolverhampton Wanderers (graphic taken from FootballSlices).
He has an open-play expected goals per 90 average of 0.34 in the Premier League. That comes from a decent enough sample size of near 5,000 minutes. Overall, his non-penalty xG comes out to 0.37 - pretty good for the someone who is not the main star in a team that fights for a top 8 position.
His conversion rate can be better, but his xA (0.15) and his touches in the box per game (5.78) are numbers that stand out. What this suggests is that the player is involved in build-up play and he also gets into good positions on the field on a regular basis - the technical aspect of his game that Ljinders spoke about!
His dribbling is fantastic. In fact, he is one of the best dribblers in the world at his position, completing 2.51 per game at a decent success rate of 55 per cent.
Now, notice the blue area on the graph - the successful pressures. As Ljinders said, Jota is a pressing machine who would be ideal for our system. With 4.88 successful pressures per game, his workrate and ability to close down players in the final third is immense. Mohamed Salah has 5.13 pressures whereas Sadio Mane is at 5.66.
This is even more impressive considering that Wolves play a counter-attacking, conservative style of football that requires way less pressing than the Liverpool system which thrives on it. In our system, Jota's pressures are bound to go up.
Moreover, Jota also has 3.14 shot-creating actions per game - which suggests that his dribbles, passes into the final third and xA add up to more chances for his teammates.
Again, this is brilliant considering that the bulk of Wolves' creativity comes from Adama Traore and their midfield, with Raul Jimenez being the main man ahead who benefits from these chances. Jota is the best of both worlds in both creating chances and finishing them.
Does anyone remember us being linked with Ismaila Sarr? Why not compare Jota with him and see who stands out?
Sarr's stats are represented with the black lines. Barring dribbles, passes into the box and xA, there is not one category where Sarr touches Jota (times dispossessed and aerial win per cent age are not very important to us as they're based on the style of play and where you play on the field).
Jota gets into much better positions on the field, has a better conversion rate, and can run around like a man possessed when instructed to. His ceiling is higher than Sarr's, as are his raw stats - he was involved in 14 goals last season as compared to Sarr's 9.
We can also take a look at Jota's heatmap to see which positions he occupies throughout the game - and it's very promising.
You can see how active the player is across the field. Primarily operating on the left flank, Jota tracks back and often is deployed centrally too as his dribbling and quick passing enable him to beat players and move the ball forward.
A comparison with Mane
To drive home exactly how good this heat map is, here's a look at Mane's from the last season where he was arguably our best player as we won the Premier League!
Mane also primary dominates the left flank and prefers to cut in. Compare Jota's presence in his own half as compared to Mane's - the Portuguese forward really does it all.
Again, we can't forget that Wolves don't have the ball as much as we do and Jota was their complete attacker on the left hand side who got into the box with ease.
Mane's heat map brings us here - how similar Jota is to the Mane that we signed from Southampton. The good folks @AIUnderPressure on Twitter have provided us with this vital piece of statistic that highlights these similarities.
The two rank very similar in quite a lot of important stats at the exact same age. Jota betters Mane in goal involvement (similar to OPshot creation).
Mane scored 25 goals across 75 appearances for Southampton, Jota has 44 goals in 131 assists for Wolverhampton. He also has 6 assists more than Mane, although the difference in appearances covers up for that.
As Sam Maguire (@SamMcguire90) on Twitter points out, Jota's more of a goalscorer than he is a creator but that was the same case with Mane and Salah until Klopp paired them up and two became more prolific passers.
He also gets into good goalscoring areas and his shots are high value - which means they have a better chance of ending up in the back of the net.
While Jota's form has often been 'streaky' - for example, he scored 7 goals in 34 Premier League appearances but netted 6 goals in just 8 Europa League games, the same argument was made against Mane back in 2016.
Incosistencies at Jota's age are bound to happen as not everyone is a Kylian Mbappe or a Trent-Alexander Arnold. However, he has the footballing brain and to make the correct decisions and gets into dangerous areas of the field; we're sure Klopp and the coaches can refine his qualities to make him a world beater.
His versatility, potential and value to the Reds
Jota has scored 27 goals with his right foot since the 2015/16 season, which his dominant foot. But what stands out is that he has scored 20 goals with his left foot in the same time, which is supposedly his weaker foot!
His heat map above also shows that while Jota is preferred on the left flank, he can also operate on the right hand side when needed. He loves central areas on the field and he loves to cut inside and dribble. If needed, he can virtually fill in for any of the front 3 and be great at any position.
The former Atletico Madrid man can also play on the right (he’s played in a two-man attack for Wolves). He can cover across the front line and given his playing style is identical to the our African duo and he can play in place or alongside the front three that won us the Premier League.
His injury record speaks volumes too - or rather, the lack of it does! Jota has hardly spent any time on the sidelines since making his professional debut in 2014, missing only 7 games due to injury during these seasons. Reminds us of a certain Luis Suarez in that aspect...
However, what's most important is this - potential cannot be quantified through stats. While Mane, Salah and Roberto Firmino were good talents before they came to Anfield, no one expected their meteoric rise to the top. The same could happen to Jota under the best coach in the world and training alongside some of the best players in the world.
The summary and conclusions
- Jota loves to press and his successful pressures stat ranks as one of the best in the Premier League.
- He is an amazing dribbler of the ball and his expected assists while not outstanding, do paint a very good picture considering his age (23) and the team he played for.
- Jota gets into great positions in the field and his heat map suggests that the Portuguese has 3 lungs as he covers the field with ease and can track back like it's no one's business.
- His stats are comparable to Mane's at Southampton and Jota is a really intelligent forward who can fill in for any of the front 3 thanks to his versatility and lack of a weak foot.
- The player's injury record is non-existent.
- All the advanced stats and comparisons to Mane suggest that he will be a great fit into the Liverpool system and can be a genuine goalscoring as well as a creative threat on either flank, although he prefers the left side of attack.
- Under Klopp, he can have the same development trajectory as Mane or Salah and the sky is the limit for this talented, technical 23-year-old.
